The record population growth and a ‘Big Australia’ have ended up as a political football. What’s it all about, and what does it mean for you?

The huge surge in our population began in the Howard era, with the introduction of policies to provide skilled workers to support economic growth, as well as temporary ‘347’ visas, as well as visas for overseas students to study in Australia, and stay on if they found a job.

Fast-forward to recent times and the nation has 800,000 more people now than it bargained for when Labour came to power in 2007.

The ABS projected populations for:

• Sydney - 4.5 million in 2011
• Melbourne - 4 million in 2015
• Brisbane - 2 million in 2010

All had been reached by 2009!

The overall Australian population surpassed 22 million in September 2009 – 3.5 years earlier than the ABS estimated.

So what’s the issue – aside from the forecasts all being so wrong?

Well firstly, over the years the state governments haven’t provided adequate new infrastructure, such as roads, transport links, hospitals and so on. So, there is already major congestion at current numbers, and no sign that the state governments can fix this. There is also a backlog of housing estimated at 170,000 or more.

Secondly, a small fraction of immigrants arrive as refugees, or illegal immigrants, or ‘boat people’ in political terms.

As a result, many Australians feel uneasy about what is happening, so to smooth things over, both political leaders are campaigning for the election by saying they will cut immigration, and solve the ‘people smuggler’ issue.

• Tony Abbott wants immigration cut to 170,000 a year (down from its peak of around 300,000 in 2008-9), and instead boost local population growth.
  
• Julia Gillard plans to cut immigration to 175,000 per year.

Politics aside, do you think it makes sense to pull up the handbrake simply because the planning has not coincided with the growth?

Consider the following:

• Australia is the sixth largest nation by geography in the world.
• We are the sixth sparsest country in the world in terms of people per square kilometre.
• Our unemployment rate is hovering at five per cent.
• The country created over 200,000 new jobs as the world went through the global financial crisis!
• We are already facing skills shortages in many sectors, including doctors, nurses, teachers and engineers, to name a few.
• The mining sector is paying huge wages to attract staff, which drives up wage inflation overall.
• The property market is linked to population growth, with new arrivals supporting the market for investors, and growth in values.
• Economic problems are emerging in countries where population growth rates fall, like Japan, and many European countries.
• We have an ageing population, and we already face a situation where in 2050 we will have only 2.7 working people supporting each retiree, compared to 7.5 in 1970.

In our view, we need to continue growing our population, to enable continued economic growth. However, this growth has to be well planned, so that it is sustainable, and manageable, and organised.

Consider for example that in America (with a population of over 300 million), the only city with more population than Sydney and Melbourne is New York City. However, they have a great many regional centres, with populations of around 500,000.

At the end of the day the politicians will determine the size of what is meant by a ‘sustainable Australia’. We need to ensure that our leaders have the vision to do what is right for the country, and the will and determination to implement it.